80% of bets to win the next election are on the Tories ...

The latest opinion polls have been good news for David Cameron, although I am always careful never to read too much into any one individual opinion poll.

Interestingly, in recent history two predictors of who is going to win the next election which have performed better than opinion polls asking people how they personally will vote have been

1) Polls asking people which party they think will win, regardless of their own vote, and

2) Bets placed by punters on which party they think will win.

Bearing in mind that who people think will win an election is more likely to reflect what will actually happen than who they say they personally will vote for, a press release from William Hill is more good news for David Cameron's Conservatives.

Graham Sharpe of William Hill said:

"There has been no serious money for Labour to win the next General Election for months. Since Tony Blair announced he was going to stand down probably eighty per cent of the Election bets we have taken have been for the Tories."

I don't think that we Conservatives can take anything for granted. But I am more and more convinced that we have a real chance of winning - and our best chance since 1992.

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