Friday, August 22, 2008

Ipsos-MORI shows Tories leading Labour by 2 to 1:

A new opinion poll shows the Conservatives on double the voting intention share of the Labour party, with a 24% lead.

The results for August with comparisons on a month ago are: CON 48% (+1): LAB 24% (-3): LD 17% (+2).

According to the BBC this lead is believed to be the biggest lead recorded for any party by the polling group concerned, Ipsos-MORI, since their records begin in 1977.

It is also the second biggest Conservative lead recorded by any reputable pollster in that 30 year period. The only higher result in that time was a 26% Conservative lead in a YouGov poll shortly after this year's May elections.

The new survey is from Ipsos-MORI - the pollster which set up a major review of its methodology following the London Mayoral result. This took a couple of months and now involves only doing voting intention polls by phone, continuing to report headline figures taking only those certain to vote, and applying special measures to counteract the effect of public sector workers being over-sampled.

There are still nearly two years to the next election, and a lot can happen in that time. Even opinion polls as good as these do not guarantee a Conservative overall majority: we cannot afford any complacency, and we have to continue to work to stay in touch with the public and build the right policies for Britain in the 21st century.

However, if the result at the next election is anything remotely like the current polls, a Conservative majority in parliament is quite possible, and it could easily include seats like Copeland.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you going to confess Chris?
The only reason you moved to the area is due to the impending constituency boundary changes and the chance of being elected.

Isn't this why you make all the right noises but like all politicians - do nothing?

Chris Whiteside said...

Confess to what ?

I initially moved to Copeland with my family when I was selected to fight the 2005 election, which was before the boundary changes. I had promised during the selection process that if picked to fight the seat I would move to Copeland.

No reasonable person could possibly regard keeping such a promise as grounds for criticism.

We remained here after the electon for a whole raft of personal and family reasons, first among them that we like it here. At the time we bought a house here we had no way of knowing whether I would be invited to fight Copeland again.

I certainly don't accept that I "do nothing."