Conservatives outpoll Labour in Copeland in Euros

As previously mentioned, the Conservatives topped the poll in Copeland terms of votes cast in the County Council elections. We outpolled Labour by about 700 in the Copeland Borough Council area, and by over a thousand in the county council divisions which are wholly within the Copeland constituency.

This understates the Conservative lead, as there are two more rock-solid Conservative wards within the constituency which form part of the Cockermouth county divisions, both of which now fall partly in the Copeland constituency and partly in the Workington constituency. Both these divisions returned Conservative county councillors on Thursday.

Analysis of the local European election results, which are declared by local council total, suggests that the Conservatives will almost certainly also have topped the poll in the Copeland constituency in the European parliament elections, although again it is not possible to know the exact figures.

The Conservatives came within 200 of catching Labour in the Copeland Borough. If you assume that the proportion of Conservative and Labour voters in the county council elections who also voted Conservative and Labour respectively in the European election was similar in the Keswick and Derwent county division to the proportions in Copeland Borough, the Conservatives come out ahead by about a hundred votes before you add in any estimate for a further Conservative lead in the Crummock and Dalton wards.

Both Crummock and Dalton wards have Conservative councillors: Labour don't usually even contest them, but last time they did the Conservatives won by three to one.

So although we cannot prove the exact figures, it is possible to say with confidence that the Conservatives outpolled Labour on Thursday in the Copeland constituency in both the County Council and European elections.

The results in Copeland Borough were

Labour 5,617 (27.4%)
Conservative 5,434 (26.5%)
UKIP 3,043 (14.9%)
BNP 2,572 (12.6%)
Lib/Dem 1,576 (7.7%)
Green 883 (4.3%)
English Democrat 418 (2.0%)
Christian party 278 (1.4%)
No2EU 247 (1.0%)
Jury Team 92 (<1%)
Libertas 72 (<1%)
Independent 43 (<1%)

There were 221 blank or spoilt ballot papers, just over 20,000 votes cast, and the turnout was 37.3%

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