FT: Labour lead in the North evaporates

Reuters report here details of an analysis of recent polling data published in the Financial Times indicating that the Labour party has lost support not just in the South of England but in Northern seats like Copeland.

The FT analysis suggests "a bleak picture for Labour" in terms of their prospects for the next general election, which must be held by June 2010.

The business daily's analysis of aggregated regional data from recent voting intention surveys suggests that the Tories have a four-point lead in the north of England, wiping out the 19-point Labour lead in the region that helped keep Tony Blair in power in the last election.

The FT article suggests that there has been an 11.5 percentage point swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the North since the May 2005 election, which is the largest swing for any region of Britain. They quote Andrew Cooper, founder of the polling company Populus, as saying that

“The only reason Labour weren’t wiped out in England at the last election was their huge majority in the north.” That majority may no longer exist.

I am not posting this to suggest that a Conservative victory is certain, in Britain or Copeland. I entirely agree with David Cameron that we must not take the voters for granted. No party can ever afford to assume we have won until the result is declared. I am posting this to make the point that there is everything to play for, suggestions that "Labour will always win here" are simply wrong, and people's votes at the next election will really count.

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