Ladbrokes odds on the Cumbria seats
Jonathan Isaby at Conservative Home has an interesting article here about the current betting odds at Ladbrokes on constituency results at the coming election.
Ladbrokes have posted their betting odds for fifteen markets on the General Election here, including both total numbers of seats and odds for every constituency on the UK mainland.
Their odds effectively predict a Conservative majority of 33 and Jonathan has gone through the individual seats to see which party is the favourite in each and hence which seats are part of the projected 132 gains for a 33 majority. (The figure of 132 gains does not include a few which the Conservatives are already projected to have won as a result of boundary changes, but it does include Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North which have been won in by-elections and which it would be a gain relative to the last election to hold.
In Cumbria Ladbrokes projects three Conservative gains from Labour which are (surprise, surprise)
Barrow & Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
They also have Workington as one of just three seats nationally which the betting markets regard as "too close to call between the Conservatives and Labour."
Frankly I think all four of these seats are going to be close. In all four, we had more votes than Labour in last year's county council election. Being ahead in local elections does not guarantee general election success, but is a reasonable indication, especially if you are more than 10% ahead and are taking council seats from your main rival (which we did in Copeland), that you have a genuine chance of winning.
No election is over until all the votes are counted: my team are taking absolutely nothing for granted. The safest bet of all, so far as the coming General Election battles in Cumbria are concerned, is that some of the election results in the county are going to be close.
Ladbrokes have posted their betting odds for fifteen markets on the General Election here, including both total numbers of seats and odds for every constituency on the UK mainland.
Their odds effectively predict a Conservative majority of 33 and Jonathan has gone through the individual seats to see which party is the favourite in each and hence which seats are part of the projected 132 gains for a 33 majority. (The figure of 132 gains does not include a few which the Conservatives are already projected to have won as a result of boundary changes, but it does include Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North which have been won in by-elections and which it would be a gain relative to the last election to hold.
In Cumbria Ladbrokes projects three Conservative gains from Labour which are (surprise, surprise)
Barrow & Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
They also have Workington as one of just three seats nationally which the betting markets regard as "too close to call between the Conservatives and Labour."
Frankly I think all four of these seats are going to be close. In all four, we had more votes than Labour in last year's county council election. Being ahead in local elections does not guarantee general election success, but is a reasonable indication, especially if you are more than 10% ahead and are taking council seats from your main rival (which we did in Copeland), that you have a genuine chance of winning.
No election is over until all the votes are counted: my team are taking absolutely nothing for granted. The safest bet of all, so far as the coming General Election battles in Cumbria are concerned, is that some of the election results in the county are going to be close.
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