Thoughts on the German election result
The result of the German election has rightly been described as a personal triumph for Chancellor Angela Merkel but the impact of the arbitrary 5% threshold for representation in parliament under the particular system of proportional representation used in Germany has caused what looks to British eyes like a very perverse result, and one which may even to some extent make her position weaker rather than stronger.
Frau Merkel's party, the equivalent of the Conservatives, won by far the largest share of the vote, and under the first past the post system she would almost certainly have won a healthy majority.
The daft thing about the result, however, which I am surprised more people have not noticed, is that parties which are not left-wing won an outright majority of votes cast but the electoral system gave parties of the left a slim margin in the Bundestag.
If you add together the votes for the Christian Democrats and CSU (think Conservatives), the Free Democrats (think Orange Book Lib/Dems) and AfD ("Alternative for Germany" - imagine the German equivalent of a more moderate and much more professionally run, if less entertaining, version of UKIP), between them they got 51% of the vote.
I presume AfD would vigorously deny being on the right or the left. There might be debate about the former, but I don't think anyone would describe them as a left wing party, so if you split the six main parties into the left and the non-left you would put them with the latter.
Had the threshold for additional member seats in the German Bundestag (parliament) been 4% rather than 5%, the non-left parties would between them have had a majority. But because it is 5% both the FPD or Free Democrats (junior partners in the outgoing coalition, who got 4.7% of the vote). and the AfD, (who polled 4.8%) narrowly failed to win any seats.
So Angela Merkel simultaneously increased her vote and won her party's best score since German reunification more than 20 years ago, but lost her coalition partners and with them her majority!
Because the vote of the three left wing parties, the Social Democrats (Labour), Greens and the Left party (Ex communist hard left), which came to about 43% in total, were more evenly spread, all three parties made it into the Bundestag (parliament), and between them have about 51% of the seats.
Because of differences between the Social Democrats, the Left party, and the Greens, it is most unlikely that a grand coalition of the left would be workable, so Frau Merkel will remain chancellor, but the coalition negotiations are going to be difficult to say the least.
Frau Merkel's party, the equivalent of the Conservatives, won by far the largest share of the vote, and under the first past the post system she would almost certainly have won a healthy majority.
The daft thing about the result, however, which I am surprised more people have not noticed, is that parties which are not left-wing won an outright majority of votes cast but the electoral system gave parties of the left a slim margin in the Bundestag.
If you add together the votes for the Christian Democrats and CSU (think Conservatives), the Free Democrats (think Orange Book Lib/Dems) and AfD ("Alternative for Germany" - imagine the German equivalent of a more moderate and much more professionally run, if less entertaining, version of UKIP), between them they got 51% of the vote.
I presume AfD would vigorously deny being on the right or the left. There might be debate about the former, but I don't think anyone would describe them as a left wing party, so if you split the six main parties into the left and the non-left you would put them with the latter.
Had the threshold for additional member seats in the German Bundestag (parliament) been 4% rather than 5%, the non-left parties would between them have had a majority. But because it is 5% both the FPD or Free Democrats (junior partners in the outgoing coalition, who got 4.7% of the vote). and the AfD, (who polled 4.8%) narrowly failed to win any seats.
So Angela Merkel simultaneously increased her vote and won her party's best score since German reunification more than 20 years ago, but lost her coalition partners and with them her majority!
Because the vote of the three left wing parties, the Social Democrats (Labour), Greens and the Left party (Ex communist hard left), which came to about 43% in total, were more evenly spread, all three parties made it into the Bundestag (parliament), and between them have about 51% of the seats.
Because of differences between the Social Democrats, the Left party, and the Greens, it is most unlikely that a grand coalition of the left would be workable, so Frau Merkel will remain chancellor, but the coalition negotiations are going to be difficult to say the least.
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