Monday, May 29, 2017

School funding: the facts

This is what the Conservatives are actually proposing in respect of education funding:

Quote of the day 29th May 2017


"Walking the streets of Manchester, I find tolerance rather than hatred"

(On learning of the terrorist attack) "Not Manchester, I think. Terrorist attacks happen everywhere else, but not here, not in my home city."

"I feel sad and angry. How could anyone target children?"

"I go out into Manchester city centre. Other than a few police officers in Market Street, which is where all the shops are, it seemed like any other day. Hundreds of people were in St Ann’s Square laying flowers in tribute to the victims."

"Where’s the hate, I wondered? The vast majority of people in times such as these come together and offer support. Do not believe the loud voices shouting about “Islamophobia” and the backlash against Muslims."

"British people, on the whole, are marvellous and tolerant ...  British Muslims are overwhelmingly fortunate to live here."

(Extracts from an excellent article in the Sunday Times by British Muslim Iram Ramzan, a Manchester-based journalist and founder of Sedaa, a website for writers of Muslim heritage.

You can read the article in full here.)

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Dan Hodges on why he will be voting Conservative

There is a good article by former Labour and union activist Dan Hodges on why he will be voting Conservative on 8th June which you can read here.

One person had criticised him with the words "So you're going to vote for May because you don't like how Jeremy Corbyn wears his tie."

Dan replies

"It was never about his tie. On Friday, my wife and son were due to attend an Ariana Grande concert at the O2 arena. When people target – don’t simply murder, but deliberately target – children, I expect my Prime Minister to say ‘the blame is with the terrorists’, and then stop."


Eight positive reasons to vote for Theresa May's Conservative team


Sunday Music spot: Vivaldi's Gloria (Choir of King's Cambridge)

Four movements of Vivaldi's magnificent "Gloria in Excelsis Deo" (Glory to God in the highest) sung by the choir of King's College, Cambridge.


The Institute for Fiscal Stuties on Labour's manifesto


It would be fair to say that the Institute for Fiscal Studies is no friend to either the Conservatives or Labour. They have been critical of both the Labour and Conservative manifestos.

Personally however I find their criticisms of Labour's preposterous spending plans both more convincing and more damning.

Labour candidates may claim that their manifesto plans are "fully costed" but the reality is that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has taken those plans to pieces.

Labour says it can raise £49bn a year through tax rises - £52bn minus £3bn of slack.

The IFS argues that at the very least £11bn of that £52bn is not going to materialise on the grounds that the party has overestimated what it will get from taxing the rich and hitting tax avoidance (see below).

They also warned that the remaining £41bn was "very generous" and that corporation tax rises wouldn't deliver the claimed savings beyond 2022.


Taxing the rich and companies hits everyone, not just the rich

The IFS warned that Labour's planned rises in corporation tax and stamp duty will hit more than just the rich. The party's decision to extend stamp duty to derivatives and bonds will include those saving in private pension funds among the "likely losers", said the institute.

And IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said Labour's plan to hike corporation tax for larger businesses to 26% would again hit pension funds with shareholdings, and would ultimately be passed on to workers through lower wages or to consumers through higher prices.

"This isn’t to say we shouldn’t tax businesses," added Emmerson. "But we shouldn’t pretend that it is somehow victimless and hence fundamentally different from personal taxation. The impacts on households are just less transparent."


Tax rises aimed specifically at high earners are the least effective

Labour's flagship tax measure is to hit the highest earners with an income tax rise, supposedly to protect everyone else. Tax will be raised on everyone earning more than £80,000 a year.

Not so fast, says the IFS. While Labour is planning to raise £6.4bn a year from these measures, the think tank warned that just a low level of "responsiveness" - higher earners changing their behaviour, such as by moving abroad - would reduce this to £4.5bn a year. Medium responsiveness would cut it to £2.5bn, and high responsiveness would slash it all the way down to nothing.

The IFS say that the idea that Labour can fund their programme by only hitting the richest 5% and companies "will not happen" and that in practice they would have to raise taxation to the highest peacetime levels ever experienced in Britain to deliver their promises.


Labour's tax avoidance figures are unreliable...

Left wingers have a habit of ascribing heroic new funding streams to clamping down on tax avoidance. Labour's manifesto pledges to raise £8.8bn from hitting tax avoiders and evaders.

The IFS believe that "at least half of that is unlikely to materialise".

The party has double counted £2.5bn in extra revenue, and £1.6bn which Labour's offshore company levy is expected to raise won't materialise at all as people respond by ditching those ownership structures, said the IFS.

And what's left of the plans comes with "downside risk".


What the IFS could have added is that insofar as Labour's corporation tax rises do raise extra tax revenue they will leave companies with less money available for investment. That is likely to exacerbate the problem of low productivity growth which has been the worst problem holding the British economy back under governments of all colours for more than a decade.

Quote of the day 28th May 2017


Saturday, May 27, 2017

Music to unwind after campaigning: W. F. Bach's Harpsichord Concerto In E Minor

Copeland Conservatives had two good campaigning sessions today in Distington and Gilgarran, canvassing for Trudy Harrison and conducting a postal vote knock-up.

As something for anyone who has been out campaigning today to unwind to, here is a Bach Concerto.

But when I say "Bach" I don't mean Johann Sebastian Bach - J.S. Bach is the best known member of the family today but by no means the only one. As Wikipedia puts it,

"The Bach family was of importance in the history of music for nearly two hundred years, with over 50 known musicians and several notable composers, the best-known of whom was Johann Sebastian Bach (1685–1750).[1] A family genealogy was drawn up by Johann Sebastian Bach himself in 1735, his 50th year, and completed by his son Carl Philipp Emanuel."

This rather charming Harpsichord concerto was written by Wilhelm Friedemann Bach, the eldest son of JS Bach and a very distinguished musician in his own right.


Things I've learned today ....

That trying to post both a picture and a poll (serious or otherwise) on the same tweet is not something which twitter handles very well, unfortunately ...

Health Minister Philip Dunne on the next phase of work at WCH

A government Health Minister has praised Copeland’s Conservative Parliamentary Candidate for her commitment to local health services and spoken about plans to further develop West Cumberland Hospital if the Conservatives are re-elected.

Straight after being sworn in after winning the Copeland by-election Trudy Harrison met with Philip Dunne, Minister of State at the Department of Health, to reinforce the strength of local feeling, the need for vital services to stay in Whitehaven and to urge the required funding to complete the final phase of construction at West Cumberland Hospital.

Philip Dunne, Minister of State for Health, who recently visited WCH, said yesterday:

"Trudy Harrison has already shown herself to be a strong champion for local health services and has lent her support to West Cumberland’s bid for new capital investment as part of the long planned improvements in this area.”

The trust has been removed from Special Measures, a fully staffed maternity ward is in operation, and in addition to the £90million already invested by the Conservative government, funding has been secured for the final phase of the hospital’s construction.

Mr Dunne added: “I am pleased to say this will be a priority project if a Conservative Government, under Theresa May, is re-elected on June 8th. Our recent manifesto promised the most ambitious ever investment in NHS buildings and with these local proposals clearly needed and already very well advanced, we look forward to getting that investment here in Copeland as soon as possible.”

Trudy Harrison said: “I am encouraged with the progress made at West Cumberland Hospital, however, my work is far from finished and we still have a long way to go. I am confident that, if elected, I can secure the investments and improvements we so desperately need.”

Boris writes ...

Boris Johnson writes ... 

"We can’t let Corbyn get away with this.
We can’t let Corbyn get away with this Chris

Conservatives


Last night Jeremy Corbyn was interviewed by Andrew Neil – and spent the whole interview trying to escape from everything he’s said and done in his 30 years in politics. 
           
We can’t let him get away with it.
            
Everyone needs to see this video showing his true views – so please watch and share it right now.

 

  

The fact is Jeremy Corbyn backed the IRA, doesn’t support NATO, wouldn’t renew Trident, wants to increase immigration and wants to massively increase taxes on working families.
            
And can you imagine him negotiating Brexit on behalf of Britain? 
           
But if we lose just six seats, Theresa May will lose her majority and Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister, propped up by the Lib Dems and the SNP.
            
We can’t let this happen to our country. 
           
So please share this video on Facebook and Twitter today – or forward this to your friends and family.
Boris

Boris Johnson 
Foreign Secretary 

Donate     

Promoted by Alan Mabbutt on behalf of the Conservative Party, both at 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9HQ

Quote of the day 27th May 2017

In which the leader of the Labour party demonstrates that he does not understand the meaning of the word "borrowing" ...

Friday, May 26, 2017

Music to relax after campaigning, "Jauchzet Gott in allen Landen" (Bach)

Bach to work with Copeland Conservatives out campaigning in Bransty ward this evening in glorious sunshine.

I think it was the first time since I have lived at this latitude that my wife warned me as I was on my way out of the door to go campaigning to put some sunscreen on (which I did.)

For all those who have been out campaigning this evening and doubtless returned home hot tired and thirsty, here is some music to unwind to.

As campaigning resumes the PM writes

As campaigning resumes, Prime Minister Theresa May writes:

Subject: An important message Chris

An important message Chris

Conservatives

The last few days have been some of the most difficult that we have faced as a nation. All acts of terrorism are cowardly attacks on innocent people, but the attack in Manchester stands out for its appalling, sickening cowardice.
           
We experienced the worst of humanity in Manchester, but we also saw the best. The cowardice of the attacker met the bravery of the emergency services and the people of Manchester. The attempt to divide us met countless acts of kindness that brought people closer together. And in the days ahead, those must be the things we remember.

As I said on the steps of Number 10, our country and our way of life will always prevail. And in just under two weeks’ time millions of us will go to the polls, exercising our democratic right to vote.
           
Our local campaigns resumed yesterday – and our national campaign today. Our candidates and volunteers will be knocking on doors across the country, talking to voters about the issues facing Britain. 
           
           
Thank you for your support - and for making Britain what it is today.

Rt Hon. Theresa May MP
Theresa MayPrime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party

 



Promoted by Alan Mabbutt on behalf of the Conservative Party, both at 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9HQ

Quote of the day 26th may 2017

"A moment’s thought will confirm that there is no foreign policy Britain could introduce that could possibly appease the likes of Abedi.  We are damned if we intervene, and damned if we don’t.  If we intervene, we are accused of imperialism and wars for oil.  If we don’t, we are accused of indifference to the plight and slaughter of Muslims." 

"But in any event, foreign policy is not, repeat not, the sole or even the main cause of Islamist terror."

"Military intervention, non-intervention, secular government, liberal democracy, the rule of law, an independent judiciary, women’s freedom, gay rights, Jews, Shia Muslims, Sufis, the technological superiority of the west, the backwardness of much of the Muslim-majority world – all these assemble in the minds of Islamist fanatics, like a collage on a teenager’s wall, to provoke a primal scream of fear and hatred.  That many of them have previous form as criminals and addicts, are not in a stable relationship, and come from broken families shovels fuel on the fire. "

"And just as there is no foreign policy that could appease people like these, so there is no domestic policy either, short of handing them Muslim-majority enclaves of our cities to govern, and wishing them the best of British."

"To point all this out to much of the Left, however patiently, is to meet accusations of racism and Islamophobia.  Since the facts are incompatible with its worldview, which is shaped by a sense of adolescent protest, the facts must therefore be wrong. So it must stop its ears."

(Paul Goodman, extracts from article on Conservative Home which can be read in full here.)

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Campaigning to resume after a minute's silence at 11am today

As previously mentioned the UK will be observing a minute's silence in memory of the victims of the Manchester bombing, at 11am today (25th May.)

Local political campaigning will resume at noon today following that act of respect, and then national political campaigning will resume from tomorrow.

There are legitimate difference of opinion about how long political campaigning should have been suspended for in the wake of this dreadful act of terrorism, but I think this gets it about right.

I don't agree with those who suggest that suspending campaigning for a few days was a victory for the bomber.

If the political parties had stopped campaigning because they were afraid, it might be seen that way, but that is not what happened. As one Mancunian friend of mine tweeted observing Manchester's busy shopping centres the day after the bombing, "the terrorists can't even stop us shopping!"

Most of Britain's politicians chose to suspend campaigning for a few days as a mark of respect to the victims, not because anyone was afraid of terrorists.

Suspending the campaign in memory for the victims for two or three days and resuming today when there are still two weeks left for parties to get the message over for and voters and journalists to challenge them does, in my humble opinion, strike the right sort of balance between respect for the victims and ensuring that the terrorists do not prevent proper democratic debate.

Quote of the day 25th May 2017

"Donald Trump says re Manchester the terrorists want to be called monsters, so he's going to call them losers."

(Faisal Islam, on twitter)

"OK. You know what? That isn't stupid."

(David Baddiel, on twitter.)

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

A music spot in memory of the Manchester victims

"Lux Aeterna" (Eternal light shine apon them) from the Mozart Requiem


Minute's silence tomorrow

There will be a minute's silence at 11am tomorrow (Thursday 25th May) in memory of those killed in the Manchester terror atrocity.

Quote of the day 24th May 2017

"What on earth goes through the mind of someone who could do this? Yet the sacrilege of it must be the point. The more blameless the victims, the more everyday the circumstances, the more we all see ourselves in it and the wider the impact.

The natural instinct is to hunker down at home and count your blessings, retreat into the domestic and familiar – which is one reason politicians have rightly suspended campaigning for a few days, to the palpable disappointment of those whose opportunism knows no bounds. As if anyone wants to see MPs sniping at each other about their manifesto costings right now, or fielding shouted questions about counter-terrorism strategy while posing for photo opportunities in Nuneaton nurseries."

Of Manchester:

"My parents moved to Manchester in the 1990s, the heyday of the Haçienda club, when I went to university. Some of the best nights of my life were spent back home in that city. It was always big enough to be exciting, but still just small enough to be intimate and friendly, somewhere you’d bump into people you knew in the queue for club, chips or cab.

On Monday night it opened itself up to the stranded and traumatised exactly as I’d expect – drivers taking people home for free, people offering strangers shelter – and Manchester will surely put an arm around those affected for months to come.

It will overcome this, just as it overcame an IRA bombing two decades ago; I doubt this atrocity will change the city half as much as its perpetrators hope."

(Gaby Hinscliffe, from a Guardian article,

"Manchester reminds all parents of the dread of losing a child.")

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

A piece of Whimsy on a very sad day.

This afternoon I will confess to being quite upset at seeing the picture of the lovely eight-year-old girl who was one of the 22 people murdered last night in Manchester in an indescribably evil act of barbarism.  A few minutes later I read a tweet in memory of the late Sir Roger Moore, who has also just died, with a charming story about his kindness and humour towards a seven-year-old boy (and again 23 years later when the boy had become a man.) Here is the tweet. https://twitter.com/MrKenShabby/status/867036448037511169 I hope those who do not share any religious faith or may think this comment to be theologically unsound will forgive me a piece of whimsy which is giving me a little bit of comfort on a very sad day.  I'm imagining Sir Roger Moore and that eight year old girl meeting outside the Pearly Gates, and him cheering her up with his unique sense of humour the way he did that seven year old boy back in 1983.

Sir Roger Moore RIP

When he was cast to play James Bond, Roger Moore, who has died at the age of 89 after a short battle with cancer, reportedly said "I'm not as good as Connery but I'm taller."

I disagree. Connery was and is a brilliant actor but Roger Moore was just as good.

I will particularly remember him as Bond and as The Saint but he had a very rich and varied career.

To paraphrase the theme from one of the Bond films, "Nobody did it better.

Rest in Peace.

More quotes on the Manchester atrocity

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, tweeted that

"My heart is in Manchester this night. Our thoughts are with the victims."


Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull told the Australian parliament,

"This is an attack on innocents. Surely there is no crime more reprehensible than the murder of children."

"This is a direct and brutal attack on young people everywhere, on freedom everywhere."

Metro Mayor of Birmingham Andy Burnham, transcript of speech this morning:





































Statement from the Muslim Council of Britain:




President Trump:

"My thoughts are with the people of Manchester after this terrible attack."

Of the perpetrators:

"They were evil losers. I won't call them monsters because they would like that term. They would think that was a great name. I will call them losers from now on. And we'll have more of them. But they're losers, just remember that.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany expressed her "sorrow and horror" over the attack, and added

"This suspected terrorist attack will only strengthen our resolve to work with our British friends against those who plan and execute such inhuman acts. I assure the people in Britain: Germandy stands by your side."

The attack in Manchester has also been condemned by the newly elected President Macron of France, by Vladimir Putin of Russia and by the leaders of Spain, Canada, Japan, China, Poland, India, Pakistan, Ukraine and many other countries.

All campaigning suspended: the Regional Chairman writes

TO ALL CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS AND SUPPORTERS

In view of the terrible incident in Manchester last night and out of respect and remembrance for those killed and injured, the Prime Minister has decided that there should be no campaigning of any sort at any level until further notice.

I am sure that all our thoughts are with those affected.

Rt. Hon Sir Robert Atkins
Chairman, North West Conservatives.

Replacement quotes of the day 23rd May 2017

Following the dreadful atrocity at Manchester here is what various people have had to say.

HOME SECRETARY AMBER RUDD


“This was a barbaric attack, deliberately targeting some of the most vulnerable in our society - young people and children out at a pop concert.”

“The great city of Manchester has been affected by terrorism before. Its spirit was not bowed; its community continued.

“This time it has been a particular attack on the most vulnerable in our society - its intention was to sow fear - its intention is to divide. But it will not succeed.”


METRO MAYOR OF MANCHESTER ANDY BURNHAM



PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY

"We are working to establish the full details of what is being treated by the police as an appalling terrorist attack.

“All our thoughts are with the victims and the families of those who have been affected.”

Breaking News - police statement on Manchester Arena explosion

Thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by the reported explosion at Manchester Arena, particular those who have died and their families and loved ones, and all those who have been injured or are searching for people they love.

Monday, May 22, 2017

Who are today's real nasty party?

Which of Britain's political parties do you think would be most likely to act as in the way described in the following true story?

During a general election campaign, a nurse confronts the leader of a government, complaining about the stress under which NHS staff are placed and adding that she has to make use of food banks.

The governing party goes into full attack mode against the nurse: a parliamentary candidate (I would say MP except that technically there are no MPs during a general election) describes the nurse on a BBC programme as being married to an opposing political party.

Facebook pictures showing the nurse on a holiday abroad are plastered all over social media as she is vehemently attacked online by hundreds of supporters of the government party. The same pictures and appear in a prominent newspaper. It soon comes out that the parliamentary candidate who attacked the nurse on the BBC was encouraged to do so by a government minister who told her that the party had checked out the claim and it was accurate.

Only in fact it wasn't, and the parliamentary candidate concerned had to apologise. The leader of her party and head of the government excused the candidate with the words "She made a mistake, an honest mistake and she apologised for that."

If you have not already heard this story, which party do you think attacked the nurse in that way?

If you answered that it must have been the Conservatives, and gave that answer because of your view of that party or for any reason other than that the Conservatives are running the UK government at the moment, perhaps you ought to have a serious think about your attitude to people who don't share your political views. No, it wasn't the Conservatives.

If you answered that it sounds like the sort of thing the New Labour government did, then to be honest you have a point. Perhaps you remember the smears against 94 year old NHS patient Rose Addis under New Labour or the New Labour special advisor who tried to dig up dirt on the Paddington Rail Crash survivors group? But on this occasion it wasn't Labour.

In fact the government concerned was the Scottish government and the culprits were the SNP.

Scotland deserves a better voice than the SNP, who deserve to be renamed the Scottish Nasty Party.

Music to relax to after campaigning: Beethoven's Moonlight Sonata

Copeland Conservatives had a good campaign session in Whitehaven this evening and were joined by Alistair Burt who travelled all the way from Bedford to support Trudy Harrison.

Here is the first movement of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" for piano as something for anyone who was out campaigning today to unwind to.


Quote of the day 22nd May 2017

"We've actually produced a grown-up manifesto."

(Kenneth Clark MP asked on radio about some of the less popular measures in the Conservative manifesto refers to the fact that it actually addresses some of the difficult decisions which will have to be taken, for example to fund adult social care.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Sunday Music spot: "In native worth" from Haydn's Creation


"Jo Cox was a force of nature, a five-foot bundle of Yorkshire grit and determination absolutely committed to helping other people."

(Andrew Mitchell, Conservative International Development Secretary 2010-12, on Labour MP Jo Cox who was murdered a year ago and remembered around the country today.)

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Music to relax after campaigning: Trio Sonata to the theme of "On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At"

A rather different treatment of the tunes to "On Ilkley Moor Baht 'at" in a baroque style ...


Labour campaign group promotes fake NHS poster

During the Copeland by election a huge proportion of the Labour campaign was devoted to scaremongering about the NHS much of which bore very little resemblance to the truth.

* They claimed that "the Tories" were proposing to remove hospital beds from Keswick Community hospital when the Conservatives were proposing no such thing and the actual proposal from the "success regime" for community hospitals was to INCREASE the number of beds at Keswick.

* They claimed that there was a threat from "the Tories" to remove Accident and Emergency service at West Cumberland Hospital when the Conservatives were proposing no such thing, and nor was the "success regime."

* In relation to the proposal from the "success regime" to remove in-patient maternity services at WCH - and this proposal did exist but all local parties oppose it - they suggested that  a vote for any party other than Labour would mean that "babies will die" and be brain-damaged.

It didn't work. It may have motivated their own supporters but a lot of other people found this sort of campaign tactic pretty low. Indeed, it is possible that the Labour health campaign, and the gap between that campaign and the positions adopted by Labour county councillors at the Health Scrutiny a few weeks after the by-election, may have contributed to Labour's by-election and current parliamentary candidate, Gillian Troughton, and two other Labour "health campaigners" losing or failing to successfully defend the county council seats they contested on 4th May.

But as usual, some parts of Labour have not got the message. Not content with trotting out again the old "Vote Labour to save the NHS" nonsense, Guido Fawkes reports  here that Labour Future, which is supposed to be a centrist grassroots Labour Party campaign group, has posted a fake NHS poster telling voters to buy health insurance. The poster, bearing the official NHS and Public Health England logos, claimed that “from January 2018 the NHS will no longer be a free service.”

Unsurprisingly this misuse of the NHS logo has not gone down well with NHS England. An NHS England spokesman told Guido Fawkes:
“We treat misuse of the NHS logo extremely seriously and we are investigating the origin of this clearly fake poster. As soon as we became aware that Labour Future had reposted this image we contacted them and asked them to remove it from their social media, which they did.”
According to the Evening standard, The NHS is to investigate the fake poster.

I should think so too.

Labour continue to insult the intelligence of voters with their NHS smears. They deserve to be severely punished for it in the election.

Communications problems

Can I repeat the apology to anyone who has been having difficulty getting hold of me in the past few days, particularly by email or social media.

I have been having, and continue to have, some intermittent but serious communication problems - nothing to do with the hackers who attacked West Cumberland Hospital and many other institutions worldwide, I suspect this will turn out to be just wear and tear on a copper cable. A visit by an engineer has reduced the problem but not eliminated it.

One person on social media is saying that he has sent me emails to which I have not replied. This is because I have not received them.

I'm not going to go over to a mobile supplier because mobile signal reception in the vicinity of my home is rubbish and BT Infinity is not yet available to me at home, though it will be soon.

Incidentally through no fault of mine I do NOT yet have a county council email which works, although county IT have this in hand. Please do not try to contact me via a county email addres for the next few days. Best email to use is chris4copeland@btinternet.com

I'm still trying to sort out the problem, in the meantime please bear with me.

My telephone line is still working. My number is in the telephone directory because I want human beings to be able to get hold of me (except nuisance callers such as Carphone Warehouse, call centres conducting Market Research, or people calling about mis-sold PPI). My address is as on the County Council website and the imprint for this blog. (Scroll down to the bottom of the blog to see it.) 

Quote of the day 20th May 2017


Friday, May 19, 2017

Music to relax after campaigning: Ilkley Moor Bah t'at

As the PM was in Yorkshire today to launch the Conservative Manifesto, it seems only appropriate after campaigning to relax to the Yorkshire anthem, "On Ilkey Moor Baht 'at."

These are the words I know to the song (there are other versions!)

1. "Wheer hast tha' bin sin I saw thee (I saw thee)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at?
Wheer hast tha' bin sin I saw thee (I saw thee)
Wheer hast tha' bin sin I saw thee? (bin sin I saw thee)


(Chorus)
On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At!

2. Thou's bin a-courtin' Mary Jane (Mary Jane)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at?
Thou's bin a-courtin' Mary Jane (Mary Jane)
Thou's bin a-courtin' Mary Jane (courtin' Mary Jane)

(Chorus)
On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At!

3. Thou's goin to catch thee death of cowld (death of cowld)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at
Thou's goin to catch thee death of cowld (death of cowld)
Thou's goin to catch thee death of cowld (catch thee death of cowld)

(Chorus)
On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At, On Ilkley Moor Baht 'At!

4. Then we shall 'ave to bury thee (bury thee)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)

5. Then worms'll come and eat thee up (eat thee up)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)

6. Then ducks'll come and eat up t'worms (eat up t'worms)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)

7. Then we shall come and eat up t'ducks (eat up t'ducks)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)

8. Thus we shall all have etten thee (etten thee)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)

9. That's 'ow we get our oan back (oan back)
On Ilkley Moor baht 'at (etc)




Quote of the Day 19th May 2017




(Stephen Daisley, on why Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party is not party most long-standing Labour supporters have traditionally backed. This comes from the same Spectator article as yesterday's quote, and it can be read here.)

Thursday, May 18, 2017

800,000 hits and onwards

Today this blog passed 800,000 pageviews since the traffic counters went on a few years ago.

Thanks to everyone who visited in that time.

Theresa May writes

Prime Minister Theresa May writes about her speech today launching the Conservative manifesto:

Forward together.
Forward together

Conservatives
 
Today I launched my manifesto for Britain’s future. It is a manifesto to see us through Brexit and beyond – and a plan for a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain.

The next five years are the most challenging that Britain has faced in my lifetime. Brexit will define us: our place in the world, our economic security and our future prosperity.

So now more than ever, Britain needs a strong and stable government to get the best Brexit deal for our country and its people. Now more than ever, Britain needs strong and stable leadership to make the most of the opportunities Brexit brings for hardworking families. And now more than ever, Britain needs a clear plan.

Our manifesto - called Forward, Together – will meet the great challenges of our time, beyond Brexit. You can read it here.

With this plan and with a strong hand through Brexit, we will build a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain, that works for everyone:

  • A higher National Living Wage and proper rights and protections at work
  • Capping rip-off energy bills and keeping taxes low
  • A good school place for every child, with more money for schools every year
  • The chance to own a home, with more affordable housing
  • The first ever proper plan to pay for and provide social care

Thank you,
Rt Hon. Theresa May MP
Theresa May,
Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party
 
Donate


Promoted by Alan Mabbutt on behalf of the Conservative Party, both at 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9HQ

Quote of the day 18th May 2017

"Of course, there is a narrow sliver of public opinion to the right of Jeremy Corbyn and the left of Norman Tebbit.

It’s called ‘the country’."

(Stephen Daisley, on winning the middle ground, in a Spectator article which you can read here.)

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Music to relax after campaigning: Let God Arise, Händel (Chandos Anthem 11)


Communication problems - an apology

Can I apologise to anyone who has been having difficulty getting hold of me in the past few days, particularly by email or social media.

I have been having, and continue to have, some intermittent but serious communication problems - nothing to do with the hackers who attacked West Cumberland Hospital and many other institutions worldwide, I suspect this will turn out to be just wear and tear on a copper cable.

(And before any fan of mobile broadband asks me why I don't go over to a mobile supplier, the answer is that mobile signal reception in the vicinity of my home is rubbish.)

I'm posting this during one of the few periods in the past 36 hours when the broadband connection has stayed up long enough to permit me to do so.

We're due an engineering visit tomorrow, in the meantime please bear with me.

My telephone line is still working. My number is in the telephone directory because I want human beings to be able to get hold of me (unless you are from Carphone Warehouse, conducting Market Research, or calling about mis-sold PPI in which case please don't bother.)

The Chancellor writes

Chancellor Philip Hammond has been doing some analysis of the proposals in the Labour manifesto. Big surprise - Labour's sums don't add up. This is what he has to say ...

Paid for by you, Christopher
Conservatives
 
We’ve been going through the numbers in Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto - and what we discovered might shock you.
           
The amount Labour want to spend is £58 billion more than the amount they are going to raise. That’s a £58 billion black hole in a single year - paid for by every family in the country with higher taxes and more debt.
 
Jeremy Corbyn said his manifesto was ‘fully costed’ - but if he can’t be trusted to add up properly, then how can anyone trust him to run the economy or negotiate the right Brexit deal for Britain?


This £58 billion black hole is yet another reminder of the clear choice facing people at this election – the strong and stable leadership of Theresa May and her Conservative team to see us through Brexit and beyond, or a coalition of chaos under Jeremy Corbyn.

Over the next 22 days, we need to make this choice clear to every voter in our country.

So please get behind this crucial campaign by making a donation today:

           
Thank you for your support,


Philip Hammond
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Donate
 


Promoted by Alan Mabbutt on behalf of the Conservative Party, both at 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9HQ

A Labour assessment of Jeremy Corbyn

The article "Why you shouldn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" was published last year in the Spectator.

It was written by a member of the Labour party, who published it anonymously with the help of Nick Cohen, and lists a large number of reasons why he believed that Jeremy Corbyn should not be re-elected leader of the Labour party.

But as Corbyn was indeed re-elected as Labour leader, nearly all of the reasons in the article are now relevant to the question of whether a floating voter who might be considering voting for the Labour party in the 2017 general election should not do so for as long as Jeremy Corbyn remains leader.

However much the Labour candidates concerned might wish to present matters otherwise,

* A vote for Labour candidate John Woodcock in Barrow & Furness is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, John McDonnell as Chancellor, Diane Abbott as Home Secretary and Emily Thornberry as Foreign Secretary.

* A vote for Labour candidate Gillian Troughton in Copeland is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, John McDonnell as Chancellor, Diane Abbott as Home Secretary and Emily Thornberry as Foreign Secretary.

* A vote for Labour candidate Sue Hayman in Workington is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, John McDonnell as Chancellor, Diane Abbott as Home Secretary and Emily Thornberry as Foreign Secretary. 

Quotes of the day 17th May 2017

Extracts from the "What he said and what he meant" article by John Rentoul in the Independent about Jeremy Corbyn's speech at the Labour party election manifesto launch.

"What he said: This manifesto is the first draft of a better future for the people of our country.
What he meant: Actually, it’s the second draft because the first one was leaked last week.

What he said: As this campaign has continued, opinion has started to move towards Labour. There is no great secret as to the reason. People want a country run for the many not the few.
What he meant: The many are voting Conservative, the few are voting Labour.

What he said: We in Labour recognise that solving these problems requires a thriving economy. One that gets our economy working again, and rises to the challenges of Brexit for jobs and investment.
What he meant: Can’t decide if Brexit is good or bad? You’ve come to the right party. 

What he said: All this is costed, as the documents accompanying our manifesto make clear.
What he meant: No idea. Ask John McDonnell. 

What he said: And in the longer term we look to a faster rate of growth, driven by increased private and public investment, to keep our accounts in shape.
What he meant: Just what Harold Wilson said. Didn’t happen, of course. 

What he said: This is a programme of hope.
What he meant: You’ve got to hope the magic faster rate of economic growth really would happen this time. 

What he said: I am very proud to present our manifesto, “For the many, not the few”. Thank you very much.
What he meant: It’s a phrase from Tony Blair’s new Clause IV, which I opposed at the time. But that was before he went mad and became a war criminal."

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

The Home Secretary writes

Home Secretary Amber Rudd writes about Labour's Manifesto:
Labour’s manifesto – all you need to know, Christopher:

Conservatives
           
Today Jeremy Corbyn confirmed what we already knew: his nonsensical ideas simply don’t add up and working families across the country would pay the price.

We’ve only got 23 days to stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting control of our economy and our Brexit negotiations – so please donate today.

After last week’s shambles, here’s what we now know about Corbyn’s ideas for our country:
  • His manifesto would mean more borrowing and more debt – and higher taxes for everyone
  • He claimed his manifesto was “fully costed” - but he made promise after promise, including plans to raise benefits and nationalise the water supply, without knowing how he’d pay for it
  • Ordinary working people would pay the price for his chaos
Just imagine if he was in charge of the Brexit negotiations - everyone’s economic security would be at risk.
           
We simply can’t let that happen.
            

Thank you for your support,
Amber Rudd 
Home Secretary
Donate


Promoted by Alan Mabbutt on behalf of the Conservative Party, both at 4 Matthew Parker Street, London, SW1H 9HQ

If this election were a boxing match (which it isn't) ...

Earlier today, after learning of a particularly egregious shambles following the launch of Labour's manifesto (Jeremy Corbyn made a double U-turn within hours of the launch), I tweeted

"If this General Election were a boxing match the referee would have stopped it and awarded victory to Theresa May ages ago."

Lest anyone misunderstand, this was a reference to the relevant level of competence of the two sides, which in a boxing match would have made it necessary to stop the fight to protect the weaker player from injury. It was not a prediction about the result.

An election is not the same as a boxing match and as we have all repeatedly discovered over the last two years, opinions can change and opinion polls are not always right.


As Stephen Bush of the New Statesman points out, three weeks before the 1997 General Election, opinion polls were published projecting a Labour vote share of 50%, 51% and 53%.

In the actual 1997 General Election Labour polled 43%.

Three weeks before the 2001 General Election, opinion polls were published projecting a Labour vote share of 48%, 54% and 53%.

In the actual 2001 General Election Labour polled 41%.

Three weeks before the 2005 General Election, opinion polls were published projecting a Labour vote share of 40%, 39% and 40%.

In the actual 2005 General Election Labour polled 35%.

So things can change. Everyone remembers how badly the 1992  and 2015 general election opinion polls and the Brexit predictions were wrong but all polls are subject to a margin of error.

In the 1997, 2001 and 2005 general elections the polls correctly suggested a Labour win but anyone who took them as a precise prediction would have greatly overstated the winning margin in share of the vote. In 1992, 2010, 2015 and 2017 most people were expecting a different outcome to what actually happened and, particularly in 1992 and 2015, polling error was a major part of that.

Of course, after 2015 most of the polling companies have adjusted their methodology to try to correct for a consistent pattern of overstating the relative position of the Labour party and understating that of the Conservatives.

This year's general election will be the first test of how well those corrections work. Until the votes are counted we will have no idea whether the polls are still overstating Labour support, are now about right, or - and this is the key point - have gone too far in the other direction and started to overstate Conservative support.

Do I think that Jeremy Corbyn is likely to win the election? No. My experience on the doorstep suggest that the polls are about right and that Labour is heading for a heavy defeat.

Do I think Conservative victory is certain? Absolutely not. You can never be certain of the result of an election until the actual votes are counted and declared.

Is the Conservative campaign scaremongering when they suggest that a Corbyn win is possible?

No, they really are not.

The electorate have the right to do whatever they wish when they get into the polling booth. And ironically the worst danger for the Conservatives is if our supporters assume that a Tory win is "nailed on" and don't bother to vote.

We have to campaign as if the polls were neck and neck as they were in 2015. We have every right to point to how disastrous a Corbyn government would be - because on June 8th the voters do have the ability to elect one. They deserve an explanation from the Conservatives as to why they shouldn't.

Theresa May has started to spell out positive reasons to vote Conservative and I am confident that she will do much more of this. But it is entirely fair to point out that the only realistic alternative candidate for Prime Minister - Jeremy Corbyn - simply is not up to the job.

Music to relax after campaigning: C.V. Stanford's "Coelos ascendit hodie"

As it will be Ascension Day in a few day's time this seems an appropriate piece to relax to after today's campaigning.


Headline of the campaign

The Economist magazine has come up with the headline of the campaign about Labour’s economic programme, referring to the borrowing the Shadow Chancellor would have to do if by some dire calamity Labour were elected.

"Old McDonnell has a plan. He eyes IOUs."

You can read the article which has this magnificent headline here.

Shadow chancellor admits Labour manifesto is not, after all, properly costed.

The only surprise is that they've admitted it ...

Up to know Labour have repeatedly claimed that their manifesto would be fully costed.”

Guido Fawkes points out that when asked by Nick Robinson how much their water nationalisation policy would cost, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell admitted they don’t have a number for this.

Good grief. They're not even trying to win, are they?

You can listen to McDonnel's interview on the Guido Fawkes site here.